Nearing politics

usedtolovelearning   15 There go my people. I must find out where they are going so I can lead them. There is an element of truth in this for both Corbyn and May. Neither of them have the confidence of their own vision to drive forward this impasse. May is beholden to the extreme elements of her party as unleashed by Cameron, together with the intransigent DUP. Her entire premiership has been bogged down by two issues; Cameron's Referendum result and her previous role. The legacy of her time at the Home Office lingers on every street of the UK and has tainted her successors precipitously. Her interpretation of the Referendum mandate in an attempt to appease the same elements that Cameron sought to cow has now utterly overwhelmed government. Corbyn was plucked from the obscurity of the reactionary wing of the PLP to challenge the pseudo-Tory line up of the leadership campaign thrust on the party by Milliband. More accustomed to protest than planning, he faced a sim...

1979: Referendum on Scottish Devolution. 37% of the electorate voted for it. 51.6% of the votes were for it. Nothing happened - because not *enough* of the electorate voted for it. 2016: Referendum on Brexit 37% of the electorate voted for it. 51.8% of the votes were for it. "S'dah willow dah peeepow!" In 1979, the people who felt short-changed licked their wounds, pulled together an alliance of multiple political parties and civil society and worked on putting together a persuasive case for Devolution (the Scottish Constitutional Convention). 18 years later they got Devolution. If the Leave people are sure they have the persuasive case, let them lick their wounds, put together an alliance, create a persuasive case for actual Brexit (no fake unicorns) and persuade the rest of us. But they are currently outnumbered, and their support seems to be waning by the week.

Ice Ages are bad - especially if you live in Europe. The Ice Sheet can reach all the way down to Africa. But the difference between an Ice Age and now? 4degC (7degF). It took 10,000 years to get from the last Ice Age to the 1950s, i.e. change the global temp by 4degC. It’s taken 70 years to change the climate by over 1degC. We’re changing the climate 2,750 faster than old Mother Nature does. So, if an Ice Age that coats all of Europe in ice is only 4degC away in one direction, then what sort of world is 4degC away in the other direction? Another way to think about it:  10degC (18degF) is the difference between Alaska and Florida. Another way to think about it: humans are used to thinking in terms of linear change. Make a little change, have a little effect. Tap the accelerator gently, the car moves a bit quicker. Floor it, and the car goes much faster. Same with tapping the brakes, and stomping on the brakes. But climate is a bit different. If we do a bit of climate...